Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1873

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1872, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1873
    18 Oct 2026, 08:31 UTC

    SLC2A4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC2A4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59d956bc4acb9a7c

    discovery-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8c6b466126800f75069c4eca…
    follows 02259c49f11e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1873: SLC2A4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC2A4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.