Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1864

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.733). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1863, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1864
    18 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC

    HMGCS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHMGCS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93f06f64465e5f5a

    discovery+0.13 p=0.733 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.315 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.733)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    20895fb140dbee4ad4ca3713…
    follows 518d6d99123d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1864: HMGCS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.10, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HMGCS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.