Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1836

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1835, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1836
    18 Oct 2026, 07:42 UTC

    USP6NL

    microglia, braak

    predictionUSP6NL in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ef7697ecd84cdba

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d9c50b3b64919f04f9876698…
    follows 4c427e69bbd6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1836: USP6NL in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP6NL in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.