Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1772

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.673). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1771, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1772
    18 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC

    ZNF84

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF84 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf457b30e19bf0c3c

    discovery+0.16 p=0.673 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.673)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    eae9929ea7a76ea6afe6957b…
    follows 9fc826c236ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1772: ZNF84 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF84 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.