Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17265

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.489). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17264, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17265
    01 Nov 2026, 10:55 UTC

    DAPL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDAPL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d7d59b628878a68

    discovery-0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.489)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    04c4326137f6a78d24ea9d7b…
    follows c34a0d0bc78c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17265: DAPL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DAPL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.