Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17263

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17262, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17263
    01 Nov 2026, 10:52 UTC

    COL18A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL18A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddf0cb9ce166570f2

    discovery-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bfa81c1c4a1fbfc906078519…
    follows dd7b58c44204…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17263: COL18A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL18A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.