Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17259

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.842). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17258, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17259
    01 Nov 2026, 10:47 UTC

    VPS36

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVPS36 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredce61406090fddf08

    discovery-0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.411 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.842)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    36b3a335fcb4d90179428f81…
    follows b54e44d88a21…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17259: VPS36 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs -0.16 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS36 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up VPS36 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.28 p 0.328 (needs p < 1.3e-4)