Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17250

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.08 p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17249, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17250
    01 Nov 2026, 10:36 UTC

    ERBIN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionERBIN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3bbe68712b232247

    discovery+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.08 p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0f25aa1c73f9ffea4436f2c9…
    follows c2dd9878a4a9…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17250: ERBIN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERBIN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.