Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17248

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17247, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17248
    01 Nov 2026, 10:33 UTC

    MED10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMED10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered06c9562802f6e2c9

    discovery+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b38b30884a10bbc984f1bf19…
    follows 9771d7478538…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17248: MED10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.19, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MED10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.