Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17242

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17241, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17242
    01 Nov 2026, 10:25 UTC

    MARF1

    microglia, braak

    predictionMARF1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9288cb0d8843405c

    discovery+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication+0.48 p=0.194 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de3a1d9a89950fde45e9fef5…
    follows f641fc0bf641…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17242: MARF1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18), 95% CI -0.05 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MARF1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.