Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17240

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17239, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17240
    01 Nov 2026, 10:22 UTC

    METRN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMETRN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd0c635e7274b4d4a

    discovery-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    edce113ed296f5fc790324a2…
    follows e7492070a45d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17240: METRN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.26 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for METRN in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up METRN · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.63 p 0.026 (needs p < 1.3e-4)