Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17238

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17237, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17238
    01 Nov 2026, 10:19 UTC

    ZC3H15

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZC3H15 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered38ea9a27a407d620

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    66f30b7ae7eac3d080497818…
    follows 8123110a02bd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17238: ZC3H15 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZC3H15 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.