Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17232

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.375). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17231, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17232
    01 Nov 2026, 10:11 UTC

    RHOQ

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRHOQ in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered79e30d376466e39f

    discovery+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.375)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5c8ddeaf79dd691a1d675bd9…
    follows 71293917934e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17232: RHOQ in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RHOQ in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.