Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17230

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.038; held-out +0.21 p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17229, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17230
    01 Nov 2026, 10:08 UTC

    TRIM37

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRIM37 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf6894affd04e8fbf

    discovery+0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.038; held-out +0.21 p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9404cd58438422a931ac6bb1…
    follows b8b2bccddad3…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17230: TRIM37 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM37 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.