Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17222

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17221, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17222
    01 Nov 2026, 09:55 UTC

    ARFGEF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARFGEF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb7f5db0efe125ce4

    discovery-0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cc7fe9fe539a8201756de260…
    follows 0c9e8a695263…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17222: ARFGEF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARFGEF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.