Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17214

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.842). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17213, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17214
    01 Nov 2026, 09:44 UTC

    PEX11B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPEX11B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a5aa7de1d7550f8

    discovery-0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.842)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    57c6ee7ce8833da3d474cd69…
    follows 4d3625ef427f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17214: PEX11B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PEX11B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.