Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17212

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.457). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17211, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17212
    01 Nov 2026, 09:41 UTC

    ERICH3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionERICH3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered69b7c015de3fde52

    discovery+0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.457)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5057eff39e0eb648e1a6306e…
    follows feacdc7eec46…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17212: ERICH3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERICH3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.