Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17207

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17206, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17207
    01 Nov 2026, 09:35 UTC

    PCDH7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPCDH7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e53f2e27167f4a7

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f9d9e3e116959f9d47899ace…
    follows 5eac941f4c00…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17207: PCDH7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCDH7 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.