Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17198

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.262). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17197, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17198
    01 Nov 2026, 09:24 UTC

    AMER2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAMER2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcdcc3dab8cd0c341

    discovery+0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.262)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c136505a9071324ca1fc2905…
    follows 50427d35c0ac…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17198: AMER2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AMER2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.