Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17195

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17194, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17195
    01 Nov 2026, 09:22 UTC

    STON2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSTON2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4696f658b569e6d9

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    488d108e705db7289eae6fc6…
    follows 1367bca842b6…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17195: STON2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.13, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STON2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.