Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17186

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17185, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17186
    01 Nov 2026, 09:11 UTC

    AP1AR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAP1AR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered434861294b272063

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.153 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87aca60e2e0317a7a9ffb11f…
    follows 695d49de411a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17186: AP1AR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.20, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AP1AR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.