Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17184

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17183, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17184
    01 Nov 2026, 09:08 UTC

    PNMA6A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPNMA6A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered95f6754434b851c8

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.766 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a8518a954bb9be868e45461f…
    follows 09f15dd37cdf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17184: PNMA6A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.06, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PNMA6A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.