Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17182

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.784). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17181, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17182
    01 Nov 2026, 09:05 UTC

    SIGLEC6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSIGLEC6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54e24827332022fb

    discovery-0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.784)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    67ff91812daf43cf71322be9…
    follows aa458de50eb8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17182: SIGLEC6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SIGLEC6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.