Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17167

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17166, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17167
    01 Nov 2026, 08:43 UTC

    TMEM135

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM135 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered70524a01b6c52660

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8de2617496be9d42490a1a85…
    follows 005047be9ad6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17167: TMEM135 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM135 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.