Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17155

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17154, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17155
    01 Nov 2026, 08:27 UTC

    SMAP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMAP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb181ed76d29fc6ff

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f9c7257fb89832fdd16169df…
    follows e2251e00f829…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17155: SMAP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18), 95% CI +0.15 to +0.82. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.68 (p 0.0021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.53 to +0.68, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMAP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.