Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17146

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17145, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17146
    01 Nov 2026, 08:16 UTC

    VAT1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVAT1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb5cd209239af5e7

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3416f372ec692a1c26dd071c…
    follows b6be70e70710…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17146: VAT1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.13, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VAT1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.