Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17133

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17132, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17133
    01 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC

    DGAT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDGAT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede2acccf555da05d3

    discovery-0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dbe896c32de7fbb522bbb766…
    follows 1a39f9b716f1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17133: DGAT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DGAT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.