Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17130

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17129, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17130
    01 Nov 2026, 07:56 UTC

    FJX1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionFJX1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredea2060027fd842a9

    discovery-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.620 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1328d1f3cd09fcbbf25677f…
    follows 82881160edb3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17130: FJX1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.457, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.457, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FJX1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.