Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17121

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17120, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17121
    01 Nov 2026, 07:45 UTC

    FBXW11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBXW11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered11f9f4100c937571

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c4d445b9ea7000fe6ae6948…
    follows a22006ffbf4f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17121: FBXW11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.18, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBXW11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.