Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17119

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.724). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17118, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17119
    01 Nov 2026, 07:43 UTC

    HYAL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHYAL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4131e1c930b71e20

    discovery-0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.724)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f7c4dca3a645e70a882e09cd…
    follows 16ef56c43faa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17119: HYAL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.68 (p 0.0020, n 18) vs -0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HYAL2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up HYAL2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured