Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17113

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.877). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17112, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17113
    01 Nov 2026, 07:34 UTC

    SCGB1D4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCGB1D4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd34a74800057057e

    discovery-0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.877)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    56350ae4f85f747b7ccb2348…
    follows cfbffc0e1047…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17113: SCGB1D4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCGB1D4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.