Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17109

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17108, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17109
    01 Nov 2026, 07:29 UTC

    RPE65

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPE65 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0c47bb1688dc8da3

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication+0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b17f4d9902841d1f1107663d…
    follows 4cabfb82a2ec…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17109: RPE65 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPE65 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.