Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17102

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17101, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17102
    01 Nov 2026, 07:21 UTC

    LYPD8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLYPD8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered36688af80e809f88

    discovery-0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15893eff99ff65589251b5ba…
    follows 3e91c37e0ae1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17102: LYPD8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.14, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LYPD8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.