Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17095

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.87 p 0.0025; held-out +0.18 p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17094, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17095
    01 Nov 2026, 07:12 UTC

    SORCS2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSORCS2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerededae576614006f2b

    discovery-0.87 p=0.0025 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.87 p 0.0025; held-out +0.18 p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c95d3b88fe50481d3b147807…
    follows 214d4ed4e51c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17095: SORCS2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SORCS2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.