Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17087

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17086, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17087
    01 Nov 2026, 07:01 UTC

    DNAJC14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAJC14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfd0c29660bb83a17

    discovery-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dafb75fba06d2a51ced09f21…
    follows eb89b8b765bd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17087: DNAJC14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAJC14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.