Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17083

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.695). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17082, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17083
    01 Nov 2026, 06:56 UTC

    ARRDC4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARRDC4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf861e57b51def91f

    discovery-0.15 p=0.695 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.406 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.695)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c1146c7e79ddaffc05577b3…
    follows 2974b860a6b7…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17083: ARRDC4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.098, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.098, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARRDC4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.