Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17074

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.262). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17073, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17074
    01 Nov 2026, 06:45 UTC

    TRAF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRAF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered17560479160f96ac

    discovery-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.262)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7f6a1ab7d1a1117dcf451d7f…
    follows 82d9a3cedb1d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17074: TRAF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRAF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.