Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17068

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17067, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17068
    01 Nov 2026, 06:36 UTC

    ACADM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACADM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f6feda564997a06

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    79f80a32fa42a62fae63f480…
    follows 2cf568dba2cd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17068: ACADM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACADM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.