Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17064

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.349). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17063, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17064
    01 Nov 2026, 06:31 UTC

    ITGB7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionITGB7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae233ae3d0737b2a

    discovery-0.35 p=0.349 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.349)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0c812a56c703af13564c8431…
    follows 2a4b509aa7d3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17064: ITGB7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITGB7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.