Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1706

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1705, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1706
    18 Oct 2026, 04:34 UTC

    SLC39A7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC39A7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6b9c0f947dd9f790

    discovery+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f932e0b7e88853920c16046…
    follows 4acc6d8da75f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1706: SLC39A7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC39A7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.