Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17050

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17049, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17050
    01 Nov 2026, 06:12 UTC

    RASIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRASIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered68a04e5328fa8fbd

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication-0.85 p=0.0040 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    35c41a5acbd2dad4e8161644…
    follows 53590bb61e7a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17050: RASIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RASIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.