Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17048

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17047, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17048
    01 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC

    POM121

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOM121 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4830ff9ad05b8ece

    discovery-0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0809589da50e14dec1cd558f…
    follows 1b567a128310…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17048: POM121 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POM121 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.