Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17044

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.031; held-out +0.33 p 0.387). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17043, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17044
    01 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC

    MYO18A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYO18A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddd3d72a6ee780efa

    discovery-0.71 p=0.031 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.031; held-out +0.33 p 0.387)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    b89dd3fb28785980491b6727…
    follows c31d81528656…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17044: MYO18A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYO18A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.