Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17033

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17032, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17033
    01 Nov 2026, 05:45 UTC

    CKS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCKS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb16ca5025a3a677

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f4f4eb6a029876617813576c…
    follows 60a93884994e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17033: CKS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CKS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.