Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1703

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out -0.04 p 0.925). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1702, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1703
    18 Oct 2026, 04:32 UTC

    PCDH17

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPCDH17 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8a912ef38820d97

    discovery-0.68 p=0.046 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out -0.04 p 0.925)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    e2d365908f4685191638ef4e…
    follows 2bbd79fc5ba5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1703: PCDH17 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCDH17 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.