Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17011

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.567). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17010, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17011
    01 Nov 2026, 05:15 UTC

    HNRNPAB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHNRNPAB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7067c2fb2e74ab75

    discovery-0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.567)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    175e130deb38c5dde3a33262…
    follows 04f5e87e04b8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17011: HNRNPAB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.01, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HNRNPAB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.