Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1701

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.041; held-out -0.50 p 0.166). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1700, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1701
    18 Oct 2026, 04:29 UTC

    FFAR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFFAR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered408ca3c09170ec55

    discovery-0.69 p=0.041 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.166 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.041; held-out -0.50 p 0.166)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    30bb9a7253036329c88fa076…
    follows 360f649c668b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1701: FFAR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18), 95% CI -0.86 to -0.28. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.75 to -0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.72 (p 7.4e-4, n 18) vs -0.66 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FFAR1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FFAR1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured