Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17002

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.87 p 0.0021; held-out -0.38 p 0.308). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17001, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17002
    01 Nov 2026, 05:04 UTC

    CRIP3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCRIP3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda3cde7385726a35d

    discovery-0.87 p=0.0021 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.308 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.87 p 0.0021; held-out -0.38 p 0.308)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    cd53653d25b504ef9e513bed…
    follows f6d8d1eb3235…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17002: CRIP3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.11. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CRIP3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.