Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16994

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.300). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16993, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16994
    01 Nov 2026, 04:53 UTC

    CXCL16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCXCL16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe1108a8e309172f

    discovery-0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    replication-0.90 p=8.3e-4 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.300)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    699cd73f49413512a3ba7972…
    follows 24b37b0911a9…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16994: CXCL16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.12. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CXCL16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.