Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16992

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.247). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16991, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16992
    01 Nov 2026, 04:50 UTC

    VPS33B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVPS33B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfd4f5c68fb52b266

    discovery-0.43 p=0.247 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.247)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fd5e36f39480e779e000628b…
    follows 70b770013963…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16992: VPS33B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS33B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.